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  • Writer's pictureFaron

土耳其陷入货币危机 里拉为何崩跌? What is the collapse of Turkey in the currency crisis?

(安卡拉2日讯)土耳其里拉兑美元今年贬值45%,陷入另一场货币危机,民众囤积美元,并且上街抗议总统艾尔段的经济政策,艾尔段将“里拉的麻烦”归咎于外国操弄。



里拉为何崩跌?是艾尔段(Recep Tayyip Erdogan)政策造成的,或真如他所说,一切都是“外国阴谋”?里拉汇价还会贬得更惨吗?半岛电视台(Al Jazeera)整理有关重点如下。

●里拉为何崩跌?

中行9月23日、10月21日、11月18日分别降息100、200、100个基点,连续3个月累计降息16码,近期里拉的麻烦基本上由此引发。中行16日可能再砍利率。

值得注意的是,中行降息通常会导致借贷成本降低,连带使得一国的货币比他国货币的相对价值变低。

●降息必然负面吗?

通膨走低、准备启动经济成长的时候就不会。一般而言,低利率鼓励消费者借钱消费、鼓励企业贷款扩张营运并且雇用更多员工。低利率也使出口相对具有价格竞争力。以上种种有利经济成长。

●为何土耳其11月降息,里拉陷入麻烦?

供应链瓶颈和原物料短缺对全球各经济体形成价格压力,土耳其自然无法幸免。当前土耳其通膨飙升,怎么也下不来。


从10月消费者物价指数年增率达19.89%,中行9月以来连续第3度降息、累计大砍利率4个百分点后,基准利率成为15%。通膨飙涨之际降息的结果几乎注定将导致通膨进一步走扬。

其他新兴经济体如韩国、俄罗斯、巴西、墨西哥、匈牙利等并未追随土耳其脚步降息因应通膨,反而以升息试图抑制通膨。

●谁支持土耳其降息抗通膨?

艾尔段认为低利率能够抗通膨、刺激经济增长、推升出口并且创造就业。


但再深入观察却发现,若是健康的经济增长,就应当会改善土耳其人的生活水准才对。不幸的是,飙升的通膨、暴跌的里拉侵蚀土耳其人所得和存款,导致实际购买力下滑。

进口产业将升高的经营成本转嫁给消费者,导致尤其是低收入家户日子难过,因为粮食和过冬所需的燃料都水涨船高。

对企业来说,土耳其经济高度仰赖外资,美元计价的企业债面临着更高昂还款成本。


●反正土耳其经济还是会正成长不是吗?

土耳其前3季经济分别年增7%、21.7%、7.4%。由于里拉陷入麻烦,有些分析预测第4季将出现萎缩。

凯投宏观(Capital Economics)新兴巿场资深经济学家图维(Jason Tuvey)表示:“里拉自9月初以来贬值逾20%,崩跌数周的效应将渗入经济层面,第4季(经济)恐急遽萎缩。”


●确实是艾尔段的错吗?是中行吧?

确实是由中行在制定货币政策。但是艾尔段2年半以来已经拔掉3位央行总裁和多位“不听话的”央行高官。3月间去职的前总裁阿格巴尔(Naci Agbal)任内曾经数度升息,使得里拉获得支撑。但是他只做了4个月就遭到撤换。

这显示出中行无法独立行事让投资人提心吊胆,担心国家的利率政策取决于政治目标,而不是经济基础。


●里拉崩跌,艾尔段怎么看?这一波里拉危机结束了吗?

艾尔段表示,里拉的麻烦是外国对土耳其经济搞破坏,以及他们在境内的支持者所造成的。11月22日他更矢言在“经济独立战争”中致胜。

但实际情况却是里拉暴跌,汇价来到1美元兑13.45里拉,在当时为历史新低。凯投宏观新兴巿场资深经济学家图维当时写道,艾尔段“似乎有意测试自己的非典型货币政策观点”。

艾尔段矢言2023年大选前都将维持低利率政策。目前看不出他会针对非典型货币政策观点进行修正,或是会更包容跟自己意见相左的中行官员。里拉危机是否结束还很难讲。


●里拉蒙受的其他压力?

自从2018年夏天货币危机以来,里拉基本上稳步贬值。除了中行今年在通膨飙升前提下降息之外,缩水的外汇储备,以及安卡拉—华府紧张关系,都让里拉蒙受压力。


(Ankara Bernama) Turkish lira depreciation of 45% against the dollar this year, into another currency crisis, people hoard dollars, and took to the streets to protest the economic policies of President Erdogan, Erdogan will " lira trouble "attributed to foreign manipulation.

Why lira collapsing? Is Erdogan (Recep Tayyip Erdogan) policy caused, or really as he says, everything is "foreign conspiracy"? Lira exchange rate will depreciate even worse it? Al-Jazeera (Al Jazeera) sort out the relevant points are as follows.

● Why lira collapsing?

BOC September 23, October 21, November 18, respectively 100,200,100 bps rate cut, the cumulative rate cut 16 yards 3 consecutive months, the trouble caused thereby is substantially recent lire. Bank of China may again cut interest rates 16.

It is worth noting that the Bank of China cut interest rates usually lead to lower borrowing costs, makes the joint currency of a country becomes lower than the relative value of his country's currency.

● inevitable negative interest rates do?

Inflation down, ready to start when the economic growth will not. In general, low interest rates encouraged consumers to borrow and spend, encourage enterprises to expand lending operations and hire more employees. Low interest rates also makes exports relatively competitive prices. All these favorable economic growth.

● Why Turkey November rate cut, the lira into trouble?

Supply chain bottlenecks and a shortage of raw materials for the formation of a global economies price pressures, Turkey naturally can not be spared. The current surge in inflation in Turkey, how nor down.


From October consumer price index annual growth rate of 19.89%, Bank of China since September, the third consecutive cut interest rates, the cumulative slashed interest rates by four percentage points, the benchmark interest rate to be 15%. Soaring inflation occasion to cut interest rates almost certainly will lead to the results of further inflation go Yang.

Other emerging economies such as South Korea, Russia, Brazil, Mexico, Turkey and Hungary did not follow the footsteps of interest rates in response to inflation, but to try to raise interest rates to suppress inflation.

● who support Turkey's anti-inflation interest rate cut?

Erdogan considered anti-inflation can lower interest rates to stimulate economic growth, pushing up exports and create jobs.


But then they found depth observation, if healthy economic growth, it should be to improve the standard of living fishes Turks. Unfortunately, soaring inflation, the lira plunged erosion Turks income and deposits, resulting in real purchasing power decline.

Import industry will increase operating costs passed on to consumers, resulting in particularly low-income households sad day, because food and fuel needed for the winter are gone.

For businesses, the Turkish economy is highly dependent on foreign investment, dollar-denominated corporate bonds faced with more high repayment costs.

● Anyway, the Turkish economy is growing or will not it?

Turkey's first three-quarter economic growth of 7%, respectively, 21.7%, 7.4%. Since the lira in trouble, some analysts predict the fourth quarter contraction will occur.

Kay cast macro (Capital Economics), senior emerging markets economist Figure dimensional (Jason Tuvey) said: "The devaluation of the lira since early September more than 20%, the effect will collapse in a few weeks infiltrate the economic level, the fourth quarter (economic) fear began to slow down. "

● Erdogan indeed do wrong? Bank of China is right?

Central line is really setting monetary policy. But Erdogan has pulled a half years since the three central bank president and a number of "disobedient" central bank officials. March left office, former president of Agnes Barr (Naci Agbal) tenure made several interest rates, so that lira supported. But he only had four months to have been replaced.

This shows that the Bank can not act independently to make investors nervous, worried about interest rate policy of the country depends on political goals rather than economic fundamentals.

● lira collapsing, how to see Erdogan? This Boli La crisis over?

Erdogan said the lira trouble for the Turkish economy is foreign sabotage, as well as their supporters territory caused. November 22 he vowed to winning in the "economic independence war".

But the reality is that the lira plunged, the dollar came to the US dollar to 13.45 liras, to a record low at the time. Kay investment in emerging markets, a senior economist at the macro view of Victoria wrote at the time, Erdogan "seems intent on testing their atypical monetary policy point of view."

Erdogan vowed before the 2023 election will maintain low interest rate policy. At present he will not see corrected for atypical monetary policy point of view, would be more inclusive or BOC officials disagree with their own. If lira also difficult to say the crisis is over.

● other pressure Lila Meng subject?

Since the summer of 2018 currency crisis, basically steady depreciation of the lira. In addition to Bank of China this year, inflation rates soared beyond the premise of decline, shrinking foreign exchange reserves, as well as Ankara - Washington tensions, let Lila Meng under pressure.


original article

https://www.sinchew.com.my/20211202/%E5%9C%9F%E8%80%B3%E5%85%B6%E9%99%B7%E5%85%A5%E8%B4%A7%E5%B8%81%E5%8D%B1%E6%9C%BA-%E9%87%8C%E6%8B%89%E4%B8%BA%E4%BD%95%E5%B4%A9%E8%B7%8C/

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