里拉为何崩跌？是艾尔段（Recep Tayyip Erdogan）政策造成的，或真如他所说，一切都是“外国阴谋”？里拉汇价还会贬得更惨吗？半岛电视台（Al Jazeera）整理有关重点如下。
凯投宏观（Capital Economics）新兴巿场资深经济学家图维（Jason Tuvey）表示：“里拉自9月初以来贬值逾20%，崩跌数周的效应将渗入经济层面，第4季（经济）恐急遽萎缩。”
(Ankara Bernama) Turkish lira depreciation of 45% against the dollar this year, into another currency crisis, people hoard dollars, and took to the streets to protest the economic policies of President Erdogan, Erdogan will " lira trouble "attributed to foreign manipulation.
Why lira collapsing? Is Erdogan (Recep Tayyip Erdogan) policy caused, or really as he says, everything is "foreign conspiracy"? Lira exchange rate will depreciate even worse it? Al-Jazeera (Al Jazeera) sort out the relevant points are as follows.
● Why lira collapsing?
BOC September 23, October 21, November 18, respectively 100,200,100 bps rate cut, the cumulative rate cut 16 yards 3 consecutive months, the trouble caused thereby is substantially recent lire. Bank of China may again cut interest rates 16.
It is worth noting that the Bank of China cut interest rates usually lead to lower borrowing costs, makes the joint currency of a country becomes lower than the relative value of his country's currency.
● inevitable negative interest rates do?
Inflation down, ready to start when the economic growth will not. In general, low interest rates encouraged consumers to borrow and spend, encourage enterprises to expand lending operations and hire more employees. Low interest rates also makes exports relatively competitive prices. All these favorable economic growth.
● Why Turkey November rate cut, the lira into trouble?
Supply chain bottlenecks and a shortage of raw materials for the formation of a global economies price pressures, Turkey naturally can not be spared. The current surge in inflation in Turkey, how nor down.
From October consumer price index annual growth rate of 19.89%, Bank of China since September, the third consecutive cut interest rates, the cumulative slashed interest rates by four percentage points, the benchmark interest rate to be 15%. Soaring inflation occasion to cut interest rates almost certainly will lead to the results of further inflation go Yang.
Other emerging economies such as South Korea, Russia, Brazil, Mexico, Turkey and Hungary did not follow the footsteps of interest rates in response to inflation, but to try to raise interest rates to suppress inflation.
● who support Turkey's anti-inflation interest rate cut?
Erdogan considered anti-inflation can lower interest rates to stimulate economic growth, pushing up exports and create jobs.
But then they found depth observation, if healthy economic growth, it should be to improve the standard of living fishes Turks. Unfortunately, soaring inflation, the lira plunged erosion Turks income and deposits, resulting in real purchasing power decline.
Import industry will increase operating costs passed on to consumers, resulting in particularly low-income households sad day, because food and fuel needed for the winter are gone.
For businesses, the Turkish economy is highly dependent on foreign investment, dollar-denominated corporate bonds faced with more high repayment costs.
● Anyway, the Turkish economy is growing or will not it?
Turkey's first three-quarter economic growth of 7%, respectively, 21.7%, 7.4%. Since the lira in trouble, some analysts predict the fourth quarter contraction will occur.
Kay cast macro (Capital Economics), senior emerging markets economist Figure dimensional (Jason Tuvey) said: "The devaluation of the lira since early September more than 20%, the effect will collapse in a few weeks infiltrate the economic level, the fourth quarter (economic) fear began to slow down. "
● Erdogan indeed do wrong? Bank of China is right?
Central line is really setting monetary policy. But Erdogan has pulled a half years since the three central bank president and a number of "disobedient" central bank officials. March left office, former president of Agnes Barr (Naci Agbal) tenure made several interest rates, so that lira supported. But he only had four months to have been replaced.
This shows that the Bank can not act independently to make investors nervous, worried about interest rate policy of the country depends on political goals rather than economic fundamentals.
● lira collapsing, how to see Erdogan? This Boli La crisis over?
Erdogan said the lira trouble for the Turkish economy is foreign sabotage, as well as their supporters territory caused. November 22 he vowed to winning in the "economic independence war".
But the reality is that the lira plunged, the dollar came to the US dollar to 13.45 liras, to a record low at the time. Kay investment in emerging markets, a senior economist at the macro view of Victoria wrote at the time, Erdogan "seems intent on testing their atypical monetary policy point of view."
Erdogan vowed before the 2023 election will maintain low interest rate policy. At present he will not see corrected for atypical monetary policy point of view, would be more inclusive or BOC officials disagree with their own. If lira also difficult to say the crisis is over.
● other pressure Lila Meng subject?
Since the summer of 2018 currency crisis, basically steady depreciation of the lira. In addition to Bank of China this year, inflation rates soared beyond the premise of decline, shrinking foreign exchange reserves, as well as Ankara - Washington tensions, let Lila Meng under pressure.