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  • Writer's pictureFaron

美债违约恐“天下大乱” 美国为什么不干脆废债限?U.S. debt defaults to the "chaos in the world" why the United States is not

美国总统拜登周三表示,债务不仅会让美国陷入衰退,全球经济也将被波及,希望借此向共和党施压,谈成提高举债上限的协议。他说:“如果我们违约,天下会大乱。”

美国的“债务上限”听起来很严厉,好像对政府支出设限,但其实只影响到支付现有账单,并不影响批准更多开支计划的能力。部分人士建议研究废除债务上限,以免每隔几年就成为两党角力战场。




1. 目前形势如何?

美国距离触及将近31.4兆美元的联邦政府举债上限愈来愈近。美国财长叶伦表示,债务违约的“大限日”最快可能落在6月1日。财政部从1月中以来一直使用一些非常规措施,例如暂停向联邦雇员退休基金缴款,来推迟大限日。但这些措施有穷尽之时,情况会变得很可怕。

2. 债务违约会如何?

许多个人和企业必须面临通常无法想像的山姆大叔赖账的情况(至少要一段时间),包括领取社会保险金的人、军人、有子女的家庭、联邦医疗保险计划(Medicare)提供者,以及持有美国公债的人。

政府可能部分停摆。不能如期兑付债券还会造成连锁反应,信评机构会下调美国公债评级,使得政府、企业和居民的借贷成本全面上扬。


白宫经济顾问委员会表示,美国经济“成长趋势将迅速反转,经济下滑的深度与违约持续时间有关”,“旷日持久的违约可能严重损害经济,就业会从目前的强劲成长演变成数百万人失业”,就算只是过于接近债务上限,就像2011年那样,同样可能影响美国的信用评级并削弱消费者信心。



3. 债限怎么来的?

债务上限的创立是在1917年,为简化对第一次世界大战的资金投入,将债券划分为不同类别,这样国会就不需要分别批准每批债券。

到二战快爆发的1939年,国会设下史上第一个债务总额上限,给予财政部发债的宽泛自由度。提高债务上限将使政府得以借进更多钱,来弥补国会已经批准的开支和税收差额。 4. 为何变政治问题? 美国到直至1953年都会例行性调高债限,但那年,参议院没有痛快调高债限,这是为了制约时任总统的艾森豪,他要求调高债限以建设公路系统。在那之后,债限又调高了数十次,通常也不会发生纷争,例如特朗普担任总统时,两党一致同意调高债限。 但过去25年里,债限愈来愈常成为党派角力的武器。1995年末到1996年初,债限问题成为导致联邦政府两度停摆的原因之一。 2011年又出现一次,以至于标普有史以来首度下调美国主权信用评级。消费者信心大降,国会共和党人和时任总统奥巴马的支持度双双重挫。 为结束债务危机,奥巴马同意未来10年削减逾2兆美元的开支。2013年,奥巴马和共和党再次为债务上限杠上,结果首次暂停债限限制。 5. 谁想提高债限? 美国两党领导人都承认必须提高债限,因为政府收支差距很大。但共和党人希望把削减开支作为提高债限的前提。4月26日,众议院通过了将债限调高1.5兆美元的提案,同时要求未来10年削减4.8兆美元的赤字。这个提案无法在参议院通过,众院议长麦卡锡表示愿意与拜登就共和党版本的债限议案进行磋商,拜登说提高债限没得商量,而且不能附加任何其他条件。 6. 一定要有债限? 一些预算专家和评论人士建议干脆取消债限,他们认为国会在这个问题上时不时争吵拉锯会增加经济不确定性。 以前曾有规避债限的提议但被否决,包括铸造铂金硬币存放在联储局,或宣布债限违反宪法第14修正案,禁止质疑联邦债务。 近年有个获得众多关注的想法,那就是由财政部发行溢价债券。 这种债券的利率高很多,投资者将提高标购价格,这样能提供现金回笼政府并缩减债券面值以逃避债限。不过,叶伦和联储局主席鲍威尔都坚持国会必须采取行动。


U.S. President Biden said on Wednesday that debt will not only cause the United States to fall into recession, but the global economy will also be affected. It is hoped that to put pressure on the Republican Party to discuss the agreement to increase the upper limit of debt. He said: "If we breach the contract, the world will be chaotic." The "debt limit" in the United States sounds severe, as if setting up limits about government expenditure, but in fact, it only affects the existing bills, and it does not affect the approval of more expenditure plans. ability. Some people recommend studying the abolition of debt limit, so as not to become a two -party wrestling battlefield every few years.


1. What is the current situation?

The United States is getting closer and closer to the federal government's debt limit for nearly 31.4 trillion dollars. US Treasury Secretary Ye Lun said that the "limited day" of debt defaults may fall on June 1 as soon as possible. The Ministry of Finance has used some unconventional measures since mid -January, such as suspending to pay to federal employee retirement funds to delay the limited day. But when these measures are exhausted, the situation will become terrible.


2. What about debt defaults?

Many people and companies must face the situation where Uncle Sam's account is usually unimaginable (at least a period of time), including those who receive social insurance benefits, soldiers, children with children, federal medical insurance programs, and holding U.S. public debt. The government may be partially stopped. It is not possible to pay bonds as scheduled to cause chain reactions. The letter -rated institution will reduce the rating of US public bonds, which will make the lending costs of the government, enterprises and residents fully increase. The White House Economic Consultant Committee stated that the "growth trend of the US economy will quickly reverse, and the depth of the economic decline is related to the duration of breach of contract". "Even if it is too close to the debt limit, as in 2011, it may also affect the US credit rating and weaken consumer confidence.


3. How does the debt limit come from?

The establishment of the debt limit was in 1917. In order to simplify the capital investment in the First World War, the bonds were divided into different categories, so that Congress did not need to approve each bond of bonds. By the outbreak of World War II, in 1939, the parliament set up the first total debt in history, giving the Ministry of Finance's broad degree of freedom. Raising the debt limit will enable the government to borrow more money to make up for the expenditure and tax difference that Congress has approved.


4. Why become political issues?

The United States would raise debt limits for its regularity until 1953, but that year, the Senate did not have a happy increase of debt limits. This was to restrict the then President Eisenho. He demanded that the debt limit was raised to build a highway system. After that, the debt limits were raised by dozens of times, and there were usually no disputes. For example, when Trump served as the president, the two parties agreed to increase the debt limit. But in the past 25 years, debt limits have become more and more commonly became the weapon of the party's wrestling. From the end of 1995 to the beginning of 1996, the issue of debt limits became one of the reasons for the federal government's twice. It appeared again in 2011, so that the first time S & P was lowered the US sovereign credit rating. Consumers' confidence has fallen greatly, and the Republicans of Congress and then President Obama have doubled their support. In order to end the debt crisis, Obama agreed to cut more than $ 2 trillion in expenses in the next 10 years. In 2013, the Obama and the Republican Party once again made the debt -limited bars, and the first time the debt limits were suspended.


5. Who wants to raise the debt limit?

Both parties leaders acknowledge that they must increase their debt limits because the gap between the government's income and expenditure is very large. However, Republicans want to take cuts of expenses as the prerequisite for increasing debt limits. On April 26, the House of Representatives adopted a proposal to increase the debt limit by 1.5 trillion dollars, and also required a deficit of $ 4.8 trillion in the next 10 years. This proposal could not be passed in the Senate. The Speaker of the House of Representatives McCarthy stated that he was willing to negotiate with Biden on the Republican version of the debt -limited proposal. Biden said that he had no discussion on raising the debt limit and could not attach any other conditions.


6. Must have debt limits?

Some budget experts and commentators recommend that they simply cancel their debt limits. They believe that Congress to quarrel from time to time on this issue will increase economic uncertainty. In the past, it had been proposed to avoid debt limits but was rejected, including cast platinum coins in the Federal Reserve, or announced that the debt limits violated the 14th amendment of the Constitution and prohibited the question of federal debt. In recent years, there is a lot of attention to get a lot of attention, that is, the Ministry of Finance issued a premium bond. The interest rate of this bond is much higher. Investors will increase the bidding price so that they can provide cash back to the government and reduce the face value of bonds to evade debt limits. However, Both Ye Lun and Fed Chairman Powell insisted that Congress must take action.


Original article

https://www.sinchew.com.my/20230511/%E7%BE%8E%E5%80%BA%E8%BF%9D%E7%BA%A6%E6%81%90%E5%A4%A9%E4%B8%8B%E5%A4%A7%E4%B9%B1-%E7%BE%8E%E5%9B%BD%E4%B8%BA%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E4%B8%8D%E5%B9%B2%E8%84%86%E5%BA%9F%E5%80%BA%E9%99%90/

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