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Field turntable investment strategy 领域轮流投资策略



(Direct translate from chinese article) Peter lynch once said: "If you are in the right, investment in the field, you can make a lot of money, and it is fast, but for most investors, the challenge is in every economic cycle, Can be investing in the field of choice. "

An economic cycle is a period in which the national economy turns from the peak to the bottom, and then returns to the peak period, it usually interprets 4 stages: economic and indigenous, expansion / recovery and peak period, for economic reactions, such as stock Performance, usually in the initial stage of the economic cycle, the performance tendency, is the growth of growth, and then slowing in other phases, usually in the economic loss of the economy. Conversely, some of the more fell assets such as Treasury bonds, usually reversed trend, with higher elevation, with higher elements, different stocks, in the economic cycle, and their performance is the worst. The stock market is the leading index of the economic cycle has been proven that it usually takes 6 to 9 months before the cycle, several economic indicators, gross domestic product, industrial production, interest rates and recovery curves, and give us an important guidance, which is economical. Trend, as well as the performance of the stock market. Some investors seek investment strategies in the field, seeking to earn profits from economic cycle changes, and the field turns to invest in different economic cycles, and enter and enter the "turntable" investment in different fields. Its strategy is usually: allocation of more assets to economic cycles performance, reducing investment proportionality is not as expected, this strategy is to establish a combination of investment reward than the big market. The premise of the field turning investment strategy is: the investment of stocks of the same industry company is inclined to the same model, the conditions are the same industry stock price, affected by the same fundamental and economic factors, generally the field classification architecture itself product. Simply put, according to business models and operations, the company is in the same group, ensuring that the company is facing the same economic factor and sensitivity factors in a field. Currently, the Global Industry Category (GICS) architecture includes 11 areas, consumers with usage products, consumer main products, energy, finance, medical care, industrial, information technology, raw materials, industrial, information services and utilities. In order to implement the field turnover strategy, many investors deploy "from the top" strategy, which involves analyzing the entire market, including monetary policy, interest rate, goods and investment production costs, as well as other economic factors, which can help assess the current economy. The environment determines the current stage of the business cycle. To understand the economic factors of individual areas or industries, investors can help investors to estimate future performances, identification areas or industries to facilitate the current and commercial cycles, depending on the business cycle, such as the initial, medium, and later Or the stage of economic downturn, some field performance is expected to surpass other areas.

Although individual business cycles are unique, based on traditional data, some field performance tend to perform well in different stages of the business cycle, the field turns investment strategy, may help investors, according to market prospects, different economic cycles Stage, adjust their combination investment.

For example, the recent price is high, we are in the high-pass gentle, the consumer field will benefit from higher inflation, the company will pass the cost to consumers, the bank sector will increase the interest rate And benefit, based on the price of primary brown oil and crude oil, planting, petroleum and natural gas field performance will be optimistic. In addition, based on the overall economic growth, trade and service areas will also be optimistic.

Through the adoption of the field investment strategy, investors face the portfolio performance fluctuations, often re-adjust the risk of combined investment, transaction fee, may result in poor performance of the big city index; in addition, the industry has different fundamental performance The machine may be masked by the level of performance, resulting in different fields in different fields, and different situations.

Like all investment strategies, the field turns through investment, has advantages and disadvantages. If you cautiously implement the turning investment, you can take the opportunity for investors to take a certain field. In this strategy, the timing of entering the field is critical. If you often adjust the combination investment, investors may lead to higher transaction costs.

When investors know that certain areas have respond to business cycles, perhaps to master their combination investment, in all, the field turning investment strategy may help maximize investment reward, but the conditions are: investors must in depth understanding of the economy Factors, the business mind is good.


彼得林奇曾经说过:“假如你在对的时候,投资对的领域,你可以赚很多钱,而且是快速的,不过,对大多数投资者来说,挑战是在每一次的经济周期,能够做到选对的领域来投资。”

一个经济周期是在国家经济从高峰转向谷底,然後又回到高峰的时期,通常诠释为4个阶段:经济不景气、经济萧条、扩张/复苏和高峰期,对经济反应敏感的资产,例如股票的表现,通常在经济周期的最初阶段,表现倾向强劲,就是成长步伐加速,然後在进入其他阶段放缓,通常在经济不景气时回酬下跌。


反之,一些比较抗跌的资产例如国库债券,通常呈现相反的走势,在经济不景气时,享有较高回酬,与股票的情况不一样,在经济周期开始阶段,它们的表现最糟。

股市是经济周期的领先指标已被证明,通常走在周期前6至9个月,数个经济指标,例如国内生产总值、工业产量、利率和回酬曲线,给予我们重要指引,就是经济的走向,以及股市的表现。

一些投资者通过领域轮流投资策略,寻求从经济周期变化中赚取利润,领域轮流投资意即经历不同的经济周期,进出不同领域“轮流”投资。


其策略通常是:分配较多的资产到经济周期表现较佳的领域,减少投资比重在表现不如预期的领域,这项策略的目标是,建立一个投资回酬比大市较理想的组合投资。


领域轮流投资策略的前提是:同一个行业公司股票的投资回酬,倾向於同样的模式,条件是同一个行业股票的价格,受到同样基本面和经济因素的影响,一般是领域分类架构本身的产品。

简单说,根据业务模式和营运,公司归在同一个组别,确保公司在一个领域,面临同样的经济因素与敏感因素。目前,全球行业归类标准(GICS)架构包括11个领域,消费者随兴产品、消费者主要产品、能源、金融、医药保健、工业、资讯工艺、原料业、实业、资讯服务与公用事业。


为落实领域轮流投资策略,许多投资者部署“自上而下”策略,这涉及分析整个大市,包括货币政策、利率、商品和投入生产成本,以及其他经济因素,这可协助评估目前的经济环境,确定商业周期目前的阶段。


在瞭解个别领域或行业的经济因素,可以协助投资者预估个别领域未来的表现,鉴定领域或行业定位好,以面对目前和商业周期的未来阶段,视商业周期,例如初期、中期、後期或经济不景气的阶段,一些领域的表现,预期超越其他领域。


虽然个别商业周期是独特的,但根据传统数据,一些领域的表现,倾向於在商业周期的不同阶段表现都好,领域轮流投资策略,可能有助於投资者,依据市场展望、经济周期的不同阶段,调整他们的组合投资。


举个例子,最近商品价格走高,我们正处於高通膨阶段,消费者领域将受惠於较高的通膨,公司会将成本转嫁消费者,银行领域将因为通膨高,调高一些利率而受惠,基於原棕油和原油价格较高,种植、石油与天然气领域表现料将受看好。此外,在整体经济成长较高的基础上,贸易和服务领域也将备受看好。


通过采纳领域轮流投资策略,投资者面临投资组合表现波动,经常重新调整组合投资,交易费增加的风险,可能导致大市指数表现欠佳;此外,个别领域的行业,拥有不同的基本面表现推动器,可能被领域水平的业绩给掩盖,导致不同领域的股价表现,出现不一样的情况。

与所有投资策略一样,领域轮流投资,有优点,也有缺点。假如谨慎落实轮流投资,给投资者搭乘某领域最佳时期的机会,在这项策略,进场与退场的时机是关键,如果经常调整组合投资,可能导致投资者必须承担较高的交易费用。


当投资者瞭解到某些领域对商业周期有反应,或许可以充份掌握他们的组合投资,总而言之,领域轮流投资策略可能有助於最大化投资回酬,不过条件是:投资者必须深入瞭解经济因素,同时商业头脑要好。


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